OPEC’s oil output is likely to set another record high in October, a Reuters survey found on Monday, as Nigerian and Libyan output partially recovered from disruptions and Iraq boosted exports.
The rise in output could add to scepticism about OPEC’s ability to finalise a plan agreed in September to limit supplies. Oil LCOc1, which rallied to a 2016 high near $54 a barrel following the decision, has since slipped towards $48.
The Philadelphia Energy Solutions oil refinery is seen at sunset in front of the Philadelphia skyline
Supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has risen to 33.82 million barrels per day (bpd) in October from a revised 33.69 million bpd in September, according to the survey based on shipping data and information from industry sources.
That would be 820,000 bpd above the top end of a target output range OPEC agreed to adopt at a Sept. 28 meeting. According to analysts, production near 34 million bpd would prolong the supply surplus weighing on the market.
“With OPEC production creeping up towards 34 million barrels a day, a production freeze guarantees that the oil market will remain out of balance throughout 2017 and into 2018,” said David Hufton of oil broker PVM.