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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart  ; Subsequent to the decision of the RBNZ to implement an interest cut rate of 0.25%, the New Zealand's currency increased on its one-month high. Upon arriving at its highest level, ...

  1. #16
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    Default NZD/USD Technical Analysis: August 12 2016



    Subsequent to the decision of the RBNZ to implement an interest cut rate of 0.25%, the New Zealand's currency increased on its one-month high. Upon arriving at its highest level, the NZD/USD have regressed towards a downward state. The mark price directed from 0.7335 to 0.7225. The resistance stands at 0.7250, the support can be seen at the level of 0.7150.

    As shown in the histogram, MACD sloped move towards a lower point and the pair signalled a seller's strength. Furthermore, the fluctuated in the overbought position.

    The price of the pair is heading to 50-EMA as indicated in the 1 hour chart . The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs ascended to the top.

    Analysts viewed the pair to be bearish and remained to be under-pressure. Trader's stop is situated at the 0.7150 region.

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    Default Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: August 15, 2016


    The AUD/USD pair ended last week’s session below its recent high of 0.77, trading at 0.7646. However, the pair remains strong as it enters into a new trading week after traders adjust to Friday’s sudden decrease, although China will be weighing in on the markets following a possible stimulus from PBOC. On the other hand, the RBA reduced its rates by 25 bps and the RBNZ followed suit, applying a 25 bps reduction rate as well.

    Prior to this particular move of New Zealand and Australian central banks, RBA’s Glenn Stevens previously denied that cutbacks on interest rates can help in improving the Australian economy. Stevens also added that Australia’s economic slowdown is only natural, given its constant growth during the past few years. He also noted that Australian households will take a while before they can start spending again since a significant amount of domestic debt has put households in tighter positions.


    The RBA representative also added that Australia’s lack of a demographic dividend has contributed to the slowing down of the GDP growth. The demographic dividend is the slow growth of the overall working population as compared to the general population growth, a problem which is also being dealt with by Japan. However, Steven’s speech did not have any impact on the AUD, which is up by 0.4% against the US dollar after the USD decreased its value following the release of the US productivity data since traders have already speculated that the Federal Reserve would not have an increase in its rates.

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    Default Fundamental Analysis for NZD/USD: August 16, 2016


    The NZD/USD pair weakened its stance and traded down at 0.7177, although this is still a relatively strong value compared to its counterparts. Investors are taking into consideration China’s mixed signals and the lack of stimulus from the People’s Bank of China. The RBA and RBNZ statements on its rate decisions are making investors and traders uneasy. The retail sales volume rose by 2.3% last June, which is the biggest increase in the last nine years. This is in comparison with a 1% increase last year.

    According to Statistics New Zealand, the increase was mainly caused by surges in vehicle sales, personal and pharmaceutical products, and more people spending on eating and drinking out. The retail sales’ total value rose from 2.2% last quarter to almost $20 billion. According to Westpac economist Satish Ranchhod, consumers are benefiting from low inflation and interest rates, which are putting money back in domestic pockets. A strengthened tourist season and strong migration rates are also helping in the surge in spending figures.

    Zespri has also stated that it has already improved its pre-export checking procedures, which has already been approved by the MPI, who is currently advising China with regards to kiwifruit exports. Kiwifruit sales has also exceeded last year’s total volume sales, with another 7 million kiwifruit trays in line for export this coming season.

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    Default Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: August 17, 2016


    The AUD/USD pair closed down Tuesday’s session on a slightly higher level, after the trading range widened following traders’ reactions to several financial events. The AUD was previously subject to pressure after a statement from RBA can possibly mean that the Reserve Bank of Australia might be considering another interest rate cut. However, the USD went down following dovish comments from Fed, increasing the overall value of the Aussie.


    Investors are now awaiting the release of the Wage Price Index, and economists are expecting the quarterly report to be at 0.5%. However, union members are expecting a weaker range for the Wage Price Index, which can lead to volatility after its release. The Fed will also be releasing its July meeting minutes and traders will be anticipating the next scheduled rate cut.
    The daily swing chart is showing a generally upward trend, although momentum has a possibility of going downward. Based on the pair’s current pricing at .7690, the AUD/USD pair’s direction will likely be determined by the reaction of traders to the .7695 short-term pivot. An increase in selling pressure is possible should there be a downward bias on a sustained move under .7635, while an upward bias will develop if there is a sustained move over .7755.

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    Default Fundamental Analysis for EUR/JPY: August 18, 2016


    The EUR/JPY pair continued its tight range-trading during Wednesday’s session after trading at 113.195, since traders are now focusing on the minutes from the US Federal Reserve Bank’s July meeting.


    The lack of significant economic news from both Japan and the eurozone has led to decreased volatility and volume levels, with the currency pair now range-bound after reaching its lowest level in a month last August 5 at 112.308. However, this unnatural chart pattern might lead to excessive volatility levels, and investors should brace themselves for possibly unexpected economic news.

    The ECB is not expected to release a statement until September 8 and the BoJ has apparently run out of economic stimuli, so traders must expect a dull period for the EUR/JPY pair until economic stimuli drives the pair back in activity.
    On Thursday, investors are expected to react to several Japanese reports, including the Adjust Trade Balance, where it is expected to be released at 0.14 trillion yen. Japanese exports are expected to decrease by up to 14.0%. Meanwhile, July’s trade balance is expected to fall from 693 billion yen to 284 billion yen.

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    Default USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 18 2016


    During the Asian trades session, the pair had restored its position to JPY 100.77 and stops at the 101.14 area which sets off the USD/JPY pair to lead with a rate of 100.74. Furthermore, the rate of the USD increased with the aid of the NY Fed President Dudley whilst the yen became weak due to its prime minister who allowed the intervention of the financial regulators whenever the levels of the rate remained indecorous.

    The pair is anticipated to trade over the level of 100.77 and the range of the limit is JPY 99.90-JPY 101.67 and descends perfectly.

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    Default Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: August 19, 2016


    The USD/CAD pair went down by 26 points as the USD further decreased its value, with both gold and oil experiencing an upsurge. The said pair is currently trading at 1.2819, with the CAD continuing its present positive value. The CAD temporarily went over the 78-cent level of the USD as the greenback fell in relation to a lot of currencies as oil prices continued to rise.
    One of the reasons for the CAD’s recent gains is the sudden upsurge in oil futures, with per barrel amounting to more than $47. Another reason for the currency’s gain is the weakening of the US dollar after calls for the Federal Reserve to take extra caution when it comes to increasing its interest rates. The CAD has been steadily increasing its value during the last 7 trading sessions before the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee yesterday, which led to a decrease after the release of the meeting’s statement.
    Investors are now expecting the release of the Canadian Consumer Price Index monthly report for its yearly and monthly data. Yearly data is expected to fall at 1.3% from last month’s 1.5%, while the monthly data is also expected to go down by -0.1% from last month’s 0.2%. Should the actual data fail to match the expected data release, then traders can expect volatility in prices as the market will try to adapt to the released financial information.

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    Default EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 19, 2016


    As presented over the 4-hour chart, the euro and dollar reached an indecision level since the US Dollar further weakened. The time frame of the currency pair maintained a higher point of movement thus heading on an accelerated trend lines.

    The increase of EURUSD is pulled by the resistance level of euro whereby set at 1.1320, the support comes between the Eur 1.1207-Eur 1.1230.

    The pair is predicted for probable decrease in distinction to EUR 1.1320. The procurement of a long investment position is suited on settling against the said level.

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    Default Fundamental Analysis for NZD/USD: August 22, 2016


    The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7264 points after gaining a 1% increase during the week due to an upsurge in dairy prices and a generally positive data flow. The positive data for dairy prices was due to an increase in the global dairy auction, with the average pricing going up from 12.7% to $2731 per tonne, with a 6.6% increase during the auction.
    Speculators in the market had predicted a 25-point basis cut as central banks are pushing for inflation rates to go back at the 1-3% rate in order to counter high currencies. The governor of the Reserve Bank has also stated that they are willing to further cut down on interest rates since there is a renewed pressure on the NZD as international conditions are continuing to weaken and interest rates remain low. He also stated that the Reserve Bank is currently having difficulties to meet its target inflation rate since the exchange rate must decline first in order to make way for added inflation.
    The financial market could also become undermined if the surges in the housing market continue, while the domestic economy remains on the positive side due to an added strength in its tourism and migration data, as well as low interest rates. Commodity prices also increased by at least 2%, its highest index since October 2015.

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    Default AUD/USD Technical Analysis: August 22, 2016


    The AUD/USD is trading flat while the Aussie dollar bounced off the 3-month trend line support. The USD appeared to be bearish with an evening star candlestick pattern against the AUD which ventured a downside risk.


    Price during the month of May tested the rising peak of the support while limiting the downside risk. The support is seen at 0.75787 which measured the July 27 result of 0.7421 low. Preferably, a change occurred over the prevailing trend on August 11 at 0.7756 high and makes it easier to oppose the August 11 result at 0.7760 top.

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    Default Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: August 24, 2016


    The EUR/USD pair had little response to the positive composite PMI data, with the EUR trading up to 25 points before the data release and remained at 1.1345 near its highest range point as the USD continued to weaken. Manufacturing PMI data went below its expected range but went above the 50-divider line.
    The economic status of the eurozone maintained its status in August, with its growth showing that it is unlikely to be cut back as a result of a possible fallout following the Brexit referendum. The composite PMI for the eurozone rose in July, from 53.2 to 53.3 points, going above the 50 level which separates expansion from contraction and is the best reading for the region in seven months. IHS Markit has stated that the eurozone’s economy remains on the steady side, with an estimated 0.3% GDP for this quarter, similar to the first half average of 2015.
    Speculators are now awaiting the Federal Reserve’s chairwoman Janet Yellen’s statement at the Jackson Hole Symposium this coming Friday. Investors will be monitoring this symposium as this has been the platform used by the Fed to warn of either a tightening or a loosening of monetary policy.


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    Default Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: August 25, 2016


    The USD/CAD pair went higher during Wednesday’s session, trading at 1.2942 after increasing by 0.0031 or +0.24%. This increase in the pair was due to speculations that Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will be delivering a possibly hawkish statement on Friday’s Jackson Hole Wyoming central bankers’ symposium. The CAD also weakened after a sudden build caused crude oil prices to go lower than 1.50%. This sharp sell-off occurred after an unexpected stockpile increase as stated by the US Energy Information Administration, causing renewed concerns about the surplus in international supply.


    The government of Alberta, Canada raised its 2016-17 budget deficit forecast to C$10.9 billion last Tuesday, after the disastrous wildfire that ripped through the region caused damages in Fort McMurray’s oil sands hub.


    If the USD continues to strengthen against the CAD and crude oil prices further decrease, then the daily pattern chart shows an upside shift in momentum. However, crude oil prices can also experience a sudden surge especially if Janet Yellen’s statement on Friday turns out to be dovish, or both OPEC and non-OPEC countries opt for a production freeze. Large payoffs are expected, however, if crude levels go lower than this month’s levels and if the Fed’s statement signals at least one rate hike before the year comes to a close.

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    Default EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 25 2016


    The currency pair EUR/USD remained squeezed early yesterday and decreased during the closing of the trading session at 1.1275 or -0.27% whereas investors are focused more about the symposium participants held in the place of Jackson Hole, Wyoming along with the upcoming speech from the Chair of the Fed, Janet Yellen with regards on the possibility of a hawkish movements for the percentage rates on USD.


    As the New York Fed chair, William Dudley declared that there is probably a rate hike in September, the euro is said to be affected upon the 25-basis point rate or 18%. Presuming the approval of Yellen for the increase in September would indicate a bearish pattern for the EUR/USD.

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    Default Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: August 26, 2016


    The USD/JPY pair remained within its range while the markets are awaiting Janet Yellen’s speech within today. Aside from the Fed’s statement release, investors are also anticipating the release of Japan’s inflation data, which is expected to cause volatility in the yen’s current value. The BoJ might not be able to extend additional support to either the Japanese economy or to assist inflation rates while employers refuse to have a wage increase, causing stagnation in the country’s economic cycle. The IMF has also recently noticed that Abenomics was not able to use its three-arrow plan in order to boost the economic status in Asia.
    The index of Nikkei 225 increased by 10% since June and the JPY has also increased in relation to the USD. This might become a problem for stocks since a strengthening yen would not attract exporters as it can decrease their foreign profits especially when converted to their local currencies. Investors are also worried that the Bank of Japan might dominate financial markets after the BoJ doubled its purchases of Tokyo-based shares, which can cause distortions in prices. This will also make it harder for investors to separate functional companies from non-functional ones, and can also cause misallocation of capital and can reduce incentives which are needed by companies to attain shareholder needs.
    The Bank of Japan has previously attempted to revitalize the Japanese economy and put a stop to years of deflation by way of purchasing large amounts of assets, thereby flooding the economy with cash. This has mostly included corporate bonds, JGBs, and ETFs.

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    Default AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 26 2016


    The Aussie and the US dollar hover to the range bound periods raised with 11 points at 0.7624. The quantitative measures indicated a low level but will experience a slight effect because of the grand news of Yellen on her Jackson Hole speech. The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group reported that AUD strengthened which influence the economic growth while exports from the region like coal and iron ore are consistent to have the largest volume of supply among countries all over the world.

    Subsequent to the unsatisfactory rate of the AUD yesterday due to a lower-than-expected results of the infrastructures, Australian dollar still gained positively.

    Australian reports have noted the statement from one of the largest government owned company of the continent, QIC Global Liquid Strategies with the head of the pension managers, Ms. Katrina King said that at US 77 cents, AUD is seen to be overvalued by 10% evaluated by the RBA's newly-developed in-house economic modeling.

    While Mr. Roy Teo, an analyst from said that the ABN Amro Bank NV ended their recommendations during the closing of the third quarter since they perceived that the AUD will be bearish with a target price of 72 cents. Reports from Bloomberg issued a forecast from the RBA about the ease of movement on November and expecting the AUD to finished with 74 cents on year end.


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