2011 - How Atiku May Pick His Running Mate
Recently, the Northern Political Leaders Forum(NPLF)named former Vice president Alhaji Atiku Abubakar as the northern consensus candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) presidential primary.
Although the Mallam Adamu Ciroma led committee has refused to give details on how it picked the former number two as the consensus candidate, sources alleged that the former vice president defeated former military president Ibrahim Babangida, governor Bukola Saraki and former security chief. Gen. Aliyu Gusua by slim votes. In -fact report said Atiku beat former military president by one vote in what the committee described as keenly contested election. How the committee voted may not be an issue for now, but what is important to Atiku is how to sustain the tempo for the battle ahead.
The defeated aspirants had in a rare show of maturity accepted their defeat in good faith. Source alleged that the four aspirants who see president Goodluck Jonathan as a common political enemy had decided to merge their campaign offices for the big battle ahead.
The consensus candidate in what suggest 'no victor no vanquish' was said to have commenced full scale realignment of forces to further shore up his electoral fortunes in 2011 election. He was alleged to have also opened top level discussions with other presidential aspirants on how best to wrestle power from president Jonathan in 2011.
A number of political patronages are said to have been agreed upon between the consensus candidate and his former opponents.
Most of the juicy portfolio are said to have been distributed among the various camps as part of the new deal. The IBB camp is expected to produce a running mate, while the Gusua camp is to produce a new Director General for Atiku campaign organisation in addition to new security chief for the president. Governor Bukola Saraki is to produce chief staff for the president and a nominee for one of the key ministries. Some regional campaign heads in the various camps have been penciled down for key appointments in the event Atiku becomes the president of Nigeria in 2011.
Sources alleged that the former vice president in a bid to form a formidable team for the battle ahead had in addition promised to carry all groups along. Until then, the big question is how long will this marriage of convenience last .
Although his emergence as consensus candidate of the NPLF was just the beginning of too many hurdles on the way of the former vice president, but analysts believed that the first major hurdle that may make or mar the new marriage is where and how the former vice president would pick his running mate at the end of he day. Making such choice at the end of the day is indeed going to be a very difficult task for the former vice president.
Although he is most likely to pick his running mate from either the south east or the south -south, the fears is that his choice of a second in command would largely determine his chances of having a comfortable vote from the south as a whole in 2011.
There are fears that he may lose large chunk of votes from the south -south if he decides to pick his running mate from south east which is already working for presidency in 2015, Others however insist that it would be another political suicide for him to take south-south which is currently eying the same seat as his running mate.
The argument in some quarters is that it would be unfair for him to pick a running mate from the south -south which is currently occupying number one position in the land. Until the death of former president YarAdua, the incumbent president who is from the south -south was the vice president.
The argument is that if Atiku should pick from south east since the south -south had tested both the number one and two in recent time.
The south -west is out of it, though not completely ruled out by other political leaders from the north.
But the biggest challenge is how to beat the four states in the south west that are already under the Action Congress of Nigeria(ACN) and Labour Party(LP) in 2011.There are speculation that AC and other parties in the south may go into alliance with Atiku. But how soon and what are the terms of such arrangement is not immediately known. But a source alleged that part of the discussion now, is to zone the post of senate president to south west. Others are also insisting that the post of the PDP chairman should also come to the south west to further boost the current effort to recover the state in 2011. Already former governor of Lagos state, Ahmed Bola Tinubu is said to be scheming for the number three position .But analysts however believe that such marriage if contracted may not last long , given the way and manner Atiku and Tinubu parted ways after the 2007 presidential election. Atiku until a few months ago was a member of AC.
The consensus candidate is said to be under pressure to pick his running mate from the south east . Source alleged that Atiku has an eye in IBB's camp for his running mate in the 2011 presidential election. According to him, part of the agreement was to allow the former military junta recommend a running mate for Atiku,
Source said at the weekend that former governor of River state, Dr. Peter Odili, former senate president Senator Ken Nnamani, former governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)Prof. Charles Soludo, are already jostling for the number two job. Both Nnamani and Odili are strong political allies of IBB. Before the new arrangement, speculations were rife that former military president would settle for Nnamani as running mate. However ,Atiku is not in a hurry to pick his running mate for some political reasons, but a source said that he would rather wait for party governorship and presidential primaries early next year before he would make public his second in commend. Although, Soludo , Odili and Nnamani are said to be fit for the job, the big task that would largely decide their fate is ,which zone would the former vice president settle for at the end of the day. A number of factors are being looked at by the former vice president in his search for a running mate
The new posture of the apex socio-cultural body of the south east , Ohaneze on the choice of Jonathan in 2011 is major hurdle standing the way of Nnamani, and Soludo and any other south east politician that may be scheming for such position.
Sources said that it may be a wrong political calculation for Atiku to pick his running mate from the south east when the governors , Ohaneze and other key political actors in the zone are already working for Jonathan. Others insisted that it would be a wrong option for the consensus candidate to pick Odili who is from the same zone with the incumbent president.
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There are however, claims that Odili, fomer governor of Delta State James Ibori who is currently in self exil in Saudi Arabia , governor Chibuike Amechi of Rivers and Beyalsa counter part Sylva, and a television giant Raymond Dokpesi may be holding some secret meeting to upstage Jonathan in the south -south ahead of the 2011. Sources alleged that Jonathan's camp in the south-south was the first to celebrate the annulment of the election of former governor of Delta state Emmanuel Uduagahan who they alleged was still loyal to his predecessor in office. They believe that having him as governor in one of the oil rich state may be a threat to Jonathan's presidential aspiration in 2011. 'So the best thing to do , is to ensure that he does not come back to office. Tough talking Ijaw leader Chief Edwin Clark who is leading the planned offensive against Uduaghan had since told the former governor who is preparing for fresh election in a few months from now to forget his ambition. Chief Clark at recent news briefing boasted that he would stop the former governor. But the said coming together of the strange bed follows may have unsettled the Jonathan camp. The said arrangement source said was to upstage Jonathan in 2011.
Although Odili was alleged to have long lost touch with Amechi, Ibori and others, the new arrangement which may soon become a rallying point for politicians in the zone may shore up the chances of picking Odili as Atiku's running mate.
While Odili is yet to deny his said ambition, there are fears that the forces working to stop him may have piled pressure on the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC)to dust its file on the former governor. Source alleged that the commission which once had a running battle with Odili , may decide to open fresh investigation on his eight years regime as governor of Rivers state. Source alleged that Atiku who may face similar challenge with time is not willing for now to pick Odili .
Apart from the possibility of using the EFCC to stop Odili, there are fears in some quarters that the former governor may not have a good electoral value that would give the consensus candidate a appreciable result from the zone in 2011. Sourcesalleged that the former governor may have lost a good number of his political associates in the state and we hardly visits his state. But many his friends who had supported him in 2007 are piling pressure on Atiku to consider him for the job, The former governor who ran one of the most flamboyant campaign in 2007 is more popular in the north, and south east where he took his wife from.
Nnamani may be facing similar challenge. Source alleged that the former senate president who is not in the main stream political camp in his state and south east may find it very difficult to get the support of most of the governors . Some of his kinsmen including deputy senate president Ike Ekweremadu still have some score to settle with him. According him, the former number three man is more acceptable only outside the south east. He is also acceptable in the international community , given his role during the debate in the National Assembly on tenure elongation for former president Obasanjo.
He also has more political associates in the north. Many believe that the former senate president would make a good VP, but others however think that he should first sail in the south east .
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Senator Obi and Soludo are also fine gentlemen , .Rumour has it that Obi who was before now the campaign leader of Gusau may work in similar capacity for Atiku under the new arrangement. But the problem with Obi and Souldo is that they are coming from a state that is under another opposition party, APGA. Unless the governor Peter Obi led APGA decides to work with Atiku ,picking Obi or Soludo as running mate may not be wise political decision. In all some people believe that picking a running mate from the south east now may jeopardise the move for IGBO presidency in 2015.
Some people had already dismissed as laughable , claim that only Jonathan's presidency in 2011 would guarantee Igbo presidency in 2015. Sources alleged that part of the unwritten agreement between the Ohaneze and Jonathan was to handover to the south east in 2015. Critics say it would be laughable for any body to think that Jonathan who does not believe in zoning would hand over powers to an Igbo man in 2015.
So which ever way any body would look at it, picking a running mate would certainly be a difficult task for the consensus candidate.
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