Vision 2020 ,A Fact or Fallacy?.

I read around the issues of Vision 2020 and did some few research,at the end of which I conclude that this may like other similar agendas turn out to be a delusion of grandiose.

The overall vision is to make Nigeria one of the 20 largest economies by 20:2020. And to accomplish this, the vision targets a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $900 billion; National Per Capita Income of $4, 000; and 60, 000MW of electricity, while anticipating that the country's population would then have risen to 200 million. At the moment Nigeria's GDP is about $315 billion, which makes it the 41st largest economy in the world by purchasing power parity; National Per Capita Income is less than $1, 400; the country generates less than 2, 800MW of electricity; and, has a population of about 149 million. Perhaps, it is because of its current status that many have already concluded that Vision 20:2020 is either a government political slogan or at best an awesome ambition. Again, this is against the backdrop of the country's woeful performance in the implementation of past policies, including National Rolling Plans, National Development Plans and National Budgets.
While I was preparing this information,I went to the Vision 2020 dedicated website to get the lattest news and this is what i got "No record found for this Section"

You can visit the website to comfirm,Here.

The Development Process, Methodology and Milestones

THE VISIONING PROCESS
In order to ensure the widest buy-in and anchor progressive implementation tied to performance it is recommended that the V2020 be developed and implemented in three stages as follows:

STAGE I: BUILDING A SOLID FOUNDATION FOR V2020 (2008–2010)
In this stage the first two components of the framework- the NCV2020 and the NSCV2020, should be established by the end of April 2007. The NSC2020 should undertake an immediate review of all current strategy and related documents including the President’s Seven Point Agenda, the NEEDS 2 and other relevant documents and prepare a Statement of National Priorities that will form the core elements of the country’s development plans and budgets during the period 2008 to 2010 and constitute the foundation for V2020. The Statement of National Priorities should set specific targets to be achieved by 2010. The NSCV2020 will also refine the V2020 framework and develop guidelines for the V2020 development process.

STAGE II: ACHIEVING THE MDGs ENROUTE TO V2020 (2011 – 2015)
By end of January 2008 the NSCV2020 will set up the National Technical Working Groups, one in each of the key areas of national priority and all stakeholder groups will establish their Vision 2020 Committees.

Under the overall direction of the NSC, the NTWGs will work closely with the Stakeholder Visioning Committees to develop detailed action plans and implementation strategies and commence implementation of Stage I of the Vision. At the same time Stakeholder Committees will begin the development of the next two stages of their Vision document.

Stage II should focus on achieving all the MDGs by 2015 as a general guide. Stakeholder Committees will determine their areas of focus in accordance with their progress on the MDGs.

STAGE III: BECOMING A TOP 20 ECONOMY BY 2020 (2015 – 2020)
In stage III, the National Steering Committee will develop detailed key goals and targets that must be met in order to achieve convergence with the projected positions of the top 20 economies. These goals and targets will be cascaded into sectors and sub-national levels.

The NTWGs will provide support in the form of data and methodologies as well as capacity building in their areas of specialty. They will also collate and harmonize the various stakeholder action plans and strategies into the National action plan and strategy for NV2020.

See Attachment here or Below. Attachment 1255970537.

NV2020 Thematic Areas

Timeline & Roadmap to Vision 2020

Guided by the need for a high quality and implementable plan, the initially approved timelines for the implementation of V2020 plan have been adjusted as shown in the subsequent diagrams.

Due to the time constraints, there might be a need to review the timelines by the National Council and National Steering Committee.

Based on the proposed Timelines, it is expected that within a 9 month period of constituting the NSC, the V2020 plan could be finalized for early launch by the first quarter 2009.

The Stage 1 of the V2020 plan constitute the 1st National Development Plan - the lift up stage which is aimed at addressing all the identified impediments to the nation’s growth which include: poor power supply, bad transport infrastructure, etc.

Already, these problems are being addressed under NEEDS-2 and the Seven Point Agenda of President - some aspects of the on-going rehabilitation works in the area of infrastructure are provided for in the 2008 Budget.

Based on the revised Timelines, the implementation of the remaining components of the work in stages II & III will span several years.

See Picture here or below. Attachment 1255970978.

Nevertheless, the beauty of visioning is that it enables a country to forecast for the long term since it embodies its objectives, goals and strategies. The visioning process also seems to have recently become popular with many countries. India, for instance, has a Vision 20:2020, which it is using to pursue its target of becoming one of the first four global economies. Likewise, China's Vision 2050, aims at eradicating poverty, establishing the country as a world power in science and lifting the average lifespan of its citizens to 80 years. Both Korea and Indonesia are equally implementing Vision 2030. Indonesia in particular targets to join the ranks of major economies as 5th in the world after U.S., China, EU and India by 2030.

In this regard, Nigeria's vision may not be out of place, if only it would commit all administrations to a common development roadmap, given what obtains at the moment, and the fact that majority of its leaders are hardly prepared before assuming office.

My Reservations

1 There is yet no reasonable sustainance in democracy policies;The next leader may come up with Vision 2012.
2 The Constitution of is not developmental friendly;Review still pending.
3 The Freedom of information and the attendant power is been underplay,for obvious reasons;Bills yet to be passed
4 Nigeria refuse to explore other means of Revenue apart from Oil;It may soon dry up.
5 The case of corruption is still been toiled with,to be candid a single person can squander all the $900 billion even if the financial vision is achieved and will get away with it ,even with massive supports;Though efforts are been made.
6 The Current top 20 world economic powers will not be sleeping,waiting for Nigeria to overtake them.

I leave you to judge the rest,if this is a reality or a costly assumption.

How ever I BELIEVE, if proper measures are put in place i think we can get there with slight adjustment in the timing.



Attachments:

From the time-line (2nd pix);They are already far behind schedules,I think they need to release another timeline.
From the strategic plan (1st pix); It is obvious that they have not lifted up and to be pessimistic,it is unlikely that they will escape gravity,I see the whole thing crash ,if at all it succeds in taking off .